Flux Reduction Simulator
Simulate a reduction of the annual trans-Atlantic dust flux (CMIP6 projects −20–30% by 2100). Watch the impact on the Amazon in real time.
Amazon P Balance
−200 t P yr⁻¹
Saharan input vs leaching losses (22,200 t P yr⁻¹). At −200 t: near-equilibrium (99% covered).
Forest Area Protected
550,000 km²
Area whose long-term survival is dust-dependent (8–12% NPP enhancement). Amazon basin: 5.5 ×10⁶ km².
Amazon CO₂ Sequestration
2.20 Pg C yr⁻¹
Current Amazon sink: 2.2 Pg C yr⁻¹. Dust-driven NPP boost: ~10%. Baseline without dust: 1.98 Pg C yr⁻¹.
⚠ Critical threshold crossed. Below 80%, the model projects a P deficit of −4,600 t P yr⁻¹, biomass loss of 5–15%, and a release of 2–6 Pg C over decadal timescales (Bousabaa et al.).
Methodology
MODIS/MISR AOD retrievals · HYSPLIT back-trajectories · MERRA-2 reanalysis (60–70% of interannual AOD variance) · MONARCH dust model (RMSE 0.05–0.15). P content: 800 mg kg⁻¹ dry weight (600–900 range). Period: 1980–2020.
Bousabaa — The Sahara as a Global Fertiliser · Swap et al. (1992) · Yu et al. (2015) · Formenti et al. (2008)
Trend 1980–2020: −15% trans-Atlantic flux. CMIP6 projects −20–30% by 2100 driven by Sahel regreening.